Flattening the Curve of Covid-19

Smoke of Satan & the Open Windows of Vatican II

What is the curve?

The “curve” researchers are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will contract COVID-19 over a period of time. (To be clear, this is not a hard prediction of how many people will definitely be infected, but a theoretical number that’s used to model the virus’ spread.) Here’s what one looks like:

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A sample epidemic curve, with and without social distancing. (Image credit: Johannes Kalliauer/ CC BY-SA 4.0)

The curve takes on different shapes, depending on the virus’s infection rate. It could be a steep curve, in which the virus spreads exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate), and the total number of cases skyrockets to its peak within a few weeks. Infection curves with a steep rise also have a steep fall; after the virus infects pretty much everyone who can be infected, case numbers begin to drop…

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2 thoughts on “Flattening the Curve of Covid-19

  1. Jock McSporran

    Scoop – flattening the curve is very important. Dave Allen explains it here, start from 3.17 in.

    Dave Allen explains the situation in Ireland, where there is a problem if there is more than one funeral per day at the cemetery.

    But – basically you’re right. They don’t expect much difference in the total number of deaths.

    Liked by 1 person

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